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Hydrologic Outlook issued September 23 at 3:27PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLESFTAEAs Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine approaches the forecast arealater this week, widespread moderate to heavy rain is expectedacross southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the FloridaPanhandle and Big Bend. The current forecast calls for 3 to 6 inchesof rain likely across the area with localized totals as high as 10inches possible. This could lead to some flash flooding, some ofwhich could be locally considerable.Antecedent conditions are rather wet along and west of theApalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River system. Many of theseareas are 3 to 7 inches above normal over the last 2 weeks. Farthereast, rainfall has generally been near or below normal. Given thesaturated soils over the western areas, these areas may be moresusceptible to flash flooding. Urban and poor drainage areas wouldalso be susceptible. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined mostof our forecast area in a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall,which is a level 3 of 4. This is highly unusual given we are 3 to 4days from the event, which highlights the threat and the confidenceof the heavy rainfall potential. A Flood Watch will likely be neededTuesday afternoon or early Wednesday morning for much of the area.On the riverine front, at least minor river flooding is possible atmany of our forecast points given the current rainfall forecast. Inareas that exceed 6 inches of rain, locally moderate river floodingwould be possible. As a reminder, river forecasts only account forthe next 48 hours of rainfall. Thus, current river forecasts do notaccount for any rainfall from the tropical system at this point.Stay tuned to later updates.

National Weather Service